Snow has arrived in abundance from late morning today and will lay the platform for a cracker of a start to the 2022 winter snow season.
Break out the beanie, jacket and gloves as temperatures dropped well below zero in the alpine today and the welcome sight of snow. Winter weather continues with blizzard conditions set to deliver upwards of 40cm of snow up until Wednesday June 1, plus more snow likely this coming weekend.
Snow forecasters have been upgrading their predictions on Monday morning with Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor from Snowatch saying NSW resorts could receive 30-80cm in the coming 5 days, and even better numbers of over 100cm of snow in the next 10-15 days. Victorian resorts will receive 20-60cm over 5 days and up to 90cm in the 15 day period. (www.snowatch.com.au)
Jane Bunn’s 7-day weather model predicts 28cm-50cm for NSW resorts and Victorian resorts 30-60cm. (www.janesweather.com)
Weatherzone said it was one of the coldest May days for many towns with Cooma Airport only reaching a top of 4.1ºC on Monday. If this temperature is not exceeded by 9am on Tuesday, this will have been the airport’s coldest May day since records commenced in 1991.
The satellite image below shows a polar air mass being driven across southern and southeastern Australia on Monday by a deep low pressure system. The blue arrows have been added to the picture to show where the frigid air is flowing between Antarctica and Australia.
A cold front embedded in the polar airstream will cross southeastern Australia on Monday night into Tuesday morning. This front will be followed by an extremely cold pool of air that will deliver low-level snow across several states between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
Temperatures could get cold enough for snow to reach to about 600 metres above sea level in Tasmania and Victoria and 600 to 800 metres in southern and central NSW and the ACT. This may include areas of the Central Tablelands in NSW and higher areas of the Blue Mountains to the west of Sydney. (www.weatherzone.com.au)
After this initial storm mid week more snow is due next weekend which could set up a great base to kickstart the season. The resorts have started their snowmaking, plus the recent snow of a few weeks ago has cooled the ground which is welcome news for the season snow cycle. Cold ground equals less melting of new snow.
As usual when early snow arrives, we wonder who will open early.
Perisher are always candidates to open when they can, so don’t be surprised if they announce Front Valley will open for this weekend. Their strategy in past seasons has a been a soft opening a day or two before a weekend, which allows for some promotion and allows the mountain staff to have everything streamlined.
Perisher’s Front Valley slope is looking primed already with a good base coat of snowmaking.
The Bureau of Meteorology issued their winter climate outlook last week.
It shows a slowly weakening La Niña is one climate factor influencing above average winter rainfall for most of central and eastern Australia in coming months.
The Outlook predicts the unusually wet conditions for inland parts of New South Wales, South Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory are likely to be in the top 20% of wettest winters. With Northern Australia's dry season starting in May, it only takes a small amount of extra rain to be above average at this time of year.
There is an above 80% chance of unusually high winter temperatures south-eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, and all of Tasmania. A large section of central Australia has an increased chance of unusually low winter daytime temperatures, in the coolest 20% of past winters. This extends from Western Australia's eastern area through central Australia into the eastern states.
Warmer than average nights are likely almost everywhere – with at least an 80% chance of higher minimum temperatures for most of Australia.
The winter outlooks reflect several climate influences, including a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a slowly declining La Niña in the Pacific Ocean and warmer than average waters around northern Australia. (www.bom.gov.au)
For the alpine region we always rely on the cold temperatures arriving when the snow falls, but this is not always the case. We often endure rain prior to the snow, so let’s hope the conditions prevail this season for snow to build a strong base in the early part of the season.
Here’s to a great snow season and many more blizzards.
(see photo gallery at top from todays snowfalls across resorts)
